NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, now a division of National Weather Service has a 50% probability is close to the regular season, regular season: 40% probability, 10% probability for above normal season. Opportunity to predict, 70 percent of major hurricanes 2-1 6-3 at 7 (Category 3 hurricane, and 11 named storms of time, say 4 or 5).

May Outlook major change from the regular season, increasing the probability of the following, the names of hurricanes and storms are expected in small numbers. 4-7 to 1-3 major hurricanes, including hurricanes, storms and 9-14, and 5 on Tuesday. Average during the season, at least 39 miles per hour, the storm of wind, every hour over 74 miles in the wind one six hurricanes, two of these 111 per hour for the two major hurricanes have winds of more than a mile.

In recent weeks, expect a return of El Nino - along the equator in the central and eastern Pacific, warm water than normal - you need to pay.

"El Nino develops, it continues in the tropical regions of the world's already high air pressure and wind," he GERIBERU, lead seasonal hurricane experts from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center said. "Production of high-level Caribbean strong western El Nino, the tropical Atlantic, leading to tropical cyclone, hurricane activity to reduce the distance the wind is in the top of the growing storm clouds."
"This may be less than in the last El Nino storm season, in the sense that you keep your mind alert," he is JAKKUHEIZU, NOAA's National Weather Service, said the director. "Looking into history, you can strike when the El Nino storms." Camille several cases in 1965, Bob, 1969, 1991, Betsy, 2002 and 1997 Lilly Danny.

Nevertheless, there is a tendency to reduce the number of storms of El Nino, a storm of support for other climatic factors. 5 as predicted, the requirement is for the period 1995 until the beginning of the year with high activity, tropical Africa and the western Atlantic, warm water, or more favorable rainfall, the strengthening and development of the storm.

The hurricane season is a reliable indicator of the overall activities of the entire season from a quiet beginning. 1992 Atlantic hurricane season this year, for example, had a normal number of named storms and hurricanes. The first storm is not the eight categories at the end of May until the destruction of Hurricane Andrew hit southern Florida in the storm.
Hurricane Andrew in 1992, eight in South Florida's hurricane season began late Monday slams.

High resolution (photo: NOAA)

"The outlook is very cycle, there is a value to determine the trends for the season, or when the next storm comes, she likes to say that," said FEMA Administrator Craig Fugate is. "This community is in danger of the storm. Therefore, our families we must take action to prepare itself, before a storm hits the next development of the Family Disaster Plan can contain, in a few simple steps now, the better, our first reaction is ready to be able to focus on citizens. "

Forecasts, the storm in force during the approach of the storm that hit the country on Monday, depending on weather conditions. Therefore, NOAA seasonal forecast, the forecast of more than a few months of landing. However, once a storm is likely to track and intensity forecasts of NOAA National Hurricane Center.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, to understand global environmental change, and predicts that, from the depth of the sea, the surface of the sun, save and manage the coastal and marine resources.